Here are some thoughts on sustainability, adapted from a posting I made on the Discuss Detroit board.
The idea is that society, or a business, or an industry, is founded and operated on a set of beliefs and understandings, which are translated into rules, regulations, or policies. As long as the rules are working and successful, there is growth and more success. At some point, sometimes, the environment changes and the rules don't fit the reality so well. Operating with the old set of rules doesn't work so successfully any more. If we're lucky, the only result is less success, but the system still operates. Sometimes, though, as time goes on, the gap between the environment and the rules widens, and there can develop a strong downside to operating under the old rules-- so much so that the society or industry causes so much damage that the whole thing implodes or falls apart. The system can't sustain itself anymore, because the old rules don't work any more. Let's take gasoline prices and the effect that will have on our society (even beyond Detroit). Take a look at this chart: http://inflationdata.com/Infla tion/images/charts/Oil/Gasolin e_inflation_chart.htm I know, it's only one chart, but I've seen others that say basically the same thing. Google around and look at some others. The charts say that gas is expensive in adjusted dollars, but no more than was the case at the beginning of the auto boom years, the years when Detroit boomed, too. And during the auto industry's second boom, in the 1950's, gasoline was significantly more expensive than during the 1990's. In fact, we nostalgically see the 1920's and the 1950's a golden years of the automobile. There were two really unusual periods on that chart-- 1980-82, and the '90's. We survived the high prices of 1980, but the '90's cheap prices caused what I think is the biggest difference between now and the '50's. The spike in the 1980's caused people to buy smaller, more efficient cars, the drop in the '90's allowed people to buy bigger less efficient cars, but also to move farther away from any destination and drive many more miles each week. Up until this past year, gasoline had risen to roughly the price it was post-WWII, and people didn't give up their gas-guzzlers back then. The big difference? They didn't drive as many miles. Farmers, yes. Urbanites and suburbanites? Much less. So how do the "rules" work here? The federal government and the state have plenty of laws and regulations that actively support sprawl, from how mortgage money is used to where roads are built to where water and sewer lines are built... right down to zoning ordinances that require quarter-acre lots or larger. (Remember the "super sewer" lawsuits in the '80's? There would be no development west of Novi Rd. if that case had been decided differently.) Even the media get into the act: I read somewhere that Better Homes & Gardens magazine began pushing suburban-style design in the early 1940's. What fuels this? Cheap gasoline and private cars. Are people going to give them up? No. I'm not, either. Can people continue to drive 50 miles each way to work? Depends. If this peak in gas prices is temporary, like 1980, then we'll get through it. Will prices drop to the super-low levels of the 1990's? Probably not. The chart says those were unusually low prices. If those low prices are what drove the sprawl out to the exurbs, then the exurbs are probably not sustainable. The rules of the 1990's fall apart. Books like "The End of Oil," whether you buy it or not, warn that at the very least, oil prices will be very volatile and spike wildly for the next two decades. At worst, they will spiral up and up with no end in sight. Look at this chart: http://www.randomuseless.info/ gasprice/gasprice.html For the last three years, the graph swings wildly up and down... big jumps with big drops. The cycles lasted about a year, but this last peak looks like a six-month cycle, with a super-high maximum. Will prices drop soon? Maybe, but in the long run, the trend is always up, at least since 1997. That's an 11-year trend. I think "up" is the trend from now on. A lot of factors have contributed to this. It is not the stupidity of the US auto industry. It is not the War in Iraq (1997 was four years before 9/11). It's not even George W. Bush. Nor was it Bill Clinton. He's been out of office a long time. It is our reliance on rules that are not sustainable. If we're smart, we'll change the policies that support those unworkable rules, and quit throwing our money away, money that supports big boxes and miles of infrastructure in places that will show zero growth very soon.
